Analysis of the foreclosures in all of Maricopa County

 

Following is an analysis of the foreclosures and trustee sales in all of Maricopa County with tables showing Where the foreclosures have hit the hardest?
the hardest hit zip codes. The zip code 85234 is not among this list of areas that have been hit the hardest! The Valley still has a lot of investment opportunities for Canadian investors, fix-and-flip residential properties, multi-family, and foreclosure homes. If you are considering buying rentals and winter homes; now it the time; the rental market is strong and these rents can off-set your mortgage payment with much ease in many instances. Multi-family properties are still yielding returns that outperform the stock market, cap rates are high and rents are increasing due to foreclosure homes creating demand for rentals.

Between January 1, 2006 and December 22, 2010, there have been 253,854 NOTS recorded in Maricopa County against homes. Since there are 1,006,770 single family homes in Maricopa County according to the County Assessor, that’s 1 NOTS for every 4 single family homes. Now quite a few homes have received multiple notices so if we count just the UNIQUE parcels that have received at least one NOTS we get a total of 213,081. This means that on average 21.2% of single family homes have received at least one NOTS since the beginning of 2006.

There have been 127,156 Trustee Deeds (TDs) issued in the same period, which represent 50.1% of the NOTS and 59.7% of the unique parcels that received at least one notice. On average 12.6% of the single family homes in Maricopa County have been foreclosed with a recorded Trustee Deed in the nearly five years since the beginning of 2006. That’s just over one in eight homes. There are also some 1,300 or so unrecorded Trustee Deeds as of yesterday.

The ZIP codes with the highest percentage of homes foreclosed (i.e. with a recorded Trustee Deed) are:
Rank City ZIP SF Homes NOTS SF Homes with >=1 NOTS TDs TD % NOTS % TD as % of NOTS
1 Phoenix 85043 7,568 4,483 3,705 2,514 33.2% 49.0% 67.9%
2 Tolleson 85353 8,685 4,874 4,128 2,750 31.7% 47.5% 66.6%
3 Phoenix 85037 12,158 6,785 5,603 3,825 31.5% 46.1% 68.3%
4 El Mirage 85335 9,227 4,972 4,127 2,856 31.0% 44.7% 69.2%
5 Tonopah 85354 535 225 207 159 29.7% 38.7% 76.8%
6 Buckeye 85326 13,957 6,806 5,828 4,095 29.3% 41.8% 70.3%
7 Avondale 85323 9,417 4,806 3,762 2,615 27.8% 39.9% 69.5%
8 Phoenix 85033 11,194 5,956 4,857 3,098 27.7% 43.4% 63.8%
9 Surprise 85379 13,345 6,288 5,322 3,519 26.4% 39.9% 66.1%
10 Phoenix 85031 5,823 3,002 2,426 1,510 25.9% 41.7% 62.2%
11 Phoenix 85035 8,322 4,279 3,486 2,153 25.9% 41.9% 61.8%
12 Laveen 85339 10,939 5,059 4,399 2,690 24.6% 40.2% 61.2%
13 Glendale 85303 7,599 3,489 2,834 1,822 24.0% 37.3% 64.3%
14 Youngtown 85363 1,952 789 659 452 23.2% 33.8% 68.6%
15 Surprise 85388 7,961 3,263 2,830 1,825 22.9% 35.5% 64.5%
16 Phoenix 85017 5,671 2,619 2,152 1,300 22.9% 35.8% 60.4%
17 Glendale 85307 1,868 781 668 428 22.9% 35.8% 64.1%
18 Phoenix 85041 14,462 6,147 5,125 3,225 22.3% 35.4% 62.9%
19 Phoenix 85019 5,577 2,424 1,953 1,208 21.7% 35.0% 61.9%
20 Avondale 85392 10,674 3,783 3,535 2,312 21.7% 33.1% 65.4%

If we look at the opposite end of the table:
Rank City ZIP SF Homes NOTS SF Homes with >=1 NOTS TDs TD % NOTS % TD as % of NOTS
112 Fort McDowell 85264 79 7 7 4 5.1% 8.9% 57.1%
113 Scottsdale 85250 3,353 431 349 169 5.0% 10.4% 48.4%
114 Scottsdale 85259 7,385 947 776 366 5.0% 10.5% 47.2%
115 Phoenix 85012 1,371 156 128 67 4.9% 9.3% 52.3%
116 Scottsdale 85255 14,482 1,760 1,470 695 4.8% 10.2% 47.3%
117 Tempe 85283 9,333 1,088 893 436 4.7% 9.6% 48.8%
118 Phoenix 85028 7,154 839 681 332 4.6% 9.5% 48.8%
119 Phoenix 85018 9,201 1,163 905 421 4.6% 9.8% 46.5%
120 Carefree 85377 1,396 135 118 63 4.5% 8.5% 53.4%
121 Wickenburg 85390 2,399 211 176 106 4.4% 7.3% 60.2%
122 Scottsdale 85266 5,411 553 495 237 4.4% 9.1% 47.9%
123 Phoenix 85044 10,772 1,153 956 435 4.0% 8.9% 45.5%
124 Aguila 85320 149 7 7 6 4.0% 4.7% 85.7%
125 Paradise Valley 85253 6,524 639 521 231 3.5% 8.0% 44.3%
126 Scottsdale 85258 6,403 574 471 211 3.3% 7.4% 44.8%
127 Sun Lakes 85248 12,871 961 774 408 3.2% 6.0% 52.7%
128 Tempe 85284 5,933 448 359 149 2.5% 6.1% 41.5%
129 Sun City 85351 12,340 521 466 307 2.5% 3.8% 65.9%
130 Rio Verde 85263 1,311 63 58 31 2.4% 4.4% 53.4%
131 Sun City West 85375 15,806 362 325 200 1.3% 2.1% 61.5%

It almost goes without saying that foreclosures have a direct effect on home pricing. Hence the ZIP Codes at the top of the Foreclosure Table are usually those where home prices have fallen the most since they peaked in 2005 through 2007, while those at the bottom of the Foreclosure Table have fallen the least. However the relationship is not exact and if we create a similar table for “Fall in Home Price $/SF Since the Peak” we see the following at the top:
Rank City ZIP Peak $/SF Qtrly Avg Qtrly Avg $/SF Dec 2010 Decline in $/SF Since Peak Foreclosure Rank
1 Phoenix 85009 $154.23 $25.27 -83.6% 27
2 Phoenix 85035 $157.33 $30.65 -80.5% 11
3 Phoenix 85031 $132.12 $26.31 -80.1% 10
4 Phoenix 85033 $148.40 $30.16 -79.7% 8
5 Phoenix 85017 $149.98 $30.79 -79.5% 16
6 Phoenix 85019 $142.86 $33.47 -76.6% 19
7 Tonopah 85354 $149.71 $38.26 -74.4% 5
8 Phoenix 85008 $184.78 $50.55 -72.6% 45
9 Avondale 85392 $195.00 $54.09 -72.3% 20
10 Youngtown 85363 $155.00 $43.09 -72.2% 14
11 Glendale 85301 $143.74 $40.18 -72.0% 26
12 Buckeye 85326 $161.85 $45.69 -71.8% 6
13 El Mirage 85335 $153.82 $45.43 -70.5% 4
14 Phoenix 85037 $153.92 $45.68 -70.3% 3
15 Waddell 85355 $237.32 $70.46 -70.3% 53
16 Phoenix 85040 $158.54 $47.37 -70.1% 24
17 Phoenix 85043 $158.44 $48.29 -69.5% 1
18 Buckeye 85396 $210.32 $65.46 -68.9% 32
19 Phoenix 85051 $148.66 $47.24 -68.2% 31
20 Tolleson 85353 $148.36 $47.93 -67.7% 2

At the bottom of the table, where prices have fallen the least we see:
Rank City ZIP Peak $/SF Qtrly Avg Qtrly Avg $/SF Dec 2010 Decline in $/SF Since Peak Foreclosure Rank
112 Paradise Valley 85253 $509.75 $259.88 -49.0% 125
113 Tempe 85282 $171.09 $87.35 -48.9% 109
114 Phoenix 85054 $259.86 $133.89 -48.5% 102
115 Scottsdale 85260 $303.78 $156.64 -48.4% 105
116 Mesa 85206 $163.18 $84.32 -48.3% 99
117 Scottsdale 85251 $269.87 $139.84 -48.2% 111
118 Phoenix 85045 $214.22 $111.24 -48.1% 98
119 Gilbert 85233 $178.80 $94.61 -47.1% 78
120 Tempe 85283 $180.75 $96.40 -46.7% 117
121 Chandler 85249 $186.05 $99.51 -46.5% 77
122 Phoenix 85044 $208.56 $111.82 -46.4% 123
123 Scottsdale 85258 $317.63 $170.51 -46.3% 126
124 Chandler 85286 $181.65 $99.03 -45.5% 79
125 Scottsdale 85254 $243.68 $133.85 -45.1% 104
126 Scottsdale 85259 $311.72 $171.86 -44.9% 114
127 Phoenix 85048 $215.93 $121.37 -43.8% 107
128 Tempe 85284 $219.39 $128.03 -41.6% 128
129 Scottsdale 85255 $338.65 $199.87 -41.0% 116
130 Sun Lakes 85248 $198.80 $118.55 -40.4% 127
131 Sun City West 85375 $162.05 $99.26 -38.7% 131

Again looking for anomalies we see that Chandler 85286 and 85249, Gilbert 85233 and Mesa 85205 have preserved their pricing better than would be expected based on their foreclosure rates.

We can also see that many parts of the Southeast Valley, particularly Tempe, Ahwatukee and South Chandler have preserved their pricing much better than Maricopa County as a whole. This is another reason why winter homes are still quite stable in the southeast valley including 85212.

It is true that foreclosure homes have caused home prices to fall, but it is a vicious cycle since it is also true that falling home prices cause foreclosures – they cause more homes to go underwater and their owners to feel less motivated to maintain their loan payments.